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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers rising in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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