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After netting nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has kicked off the season on fire.

Although this isn't his best start to a term - he scored 11 goals in his initial seven matches in the 2022-23 season and 10 last season - it nevertheless places him three goals ahead in the initial race for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that zero of his nine conversions have been spot-kicks makes it all the more impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Of course, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the honor so early in the season.

First, the number of goals he has thus far netted - and, just as importantly, the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's receiving.

Furthermore, the modest opening his usual rivals for the award have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A footballer's xG statistic (xG) represents how many goals a top-flight footballer has typically netted from the number and quality of scoring situations he's encountered.

This isn't a number randomly picked by data analysts, but by historical Premier League data.

When examining at footballers' expected goals in the English top division so far this term from open play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more quality chances to score than every other footballer.

In fact, even if Haaland wasn't superior at finishing chances than anyone else in the division, he would nevertheless have converted more than twice as many goals as everyone else.

Opportunity Analysis

This is shown by examining the number and quality of opportunities that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, twelve additional compared to every other footballer.

Interestingly, this is not particularly unusual for him - he had actually taken more open-play attempts at this juncture in the most recent two terms (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in 2024-25).

However, what's remarkable even by his standards is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His attempts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the shots he has had at a 27% success ratio.

Among footballers attempting at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to score on average - because of a couple of tap-ins against the Hammers and Seagulls.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the start of last season.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Starting a season so impressively is, as previously stated, typical for Haaland. After seven games last campaign he had registered ten strikes - four more than anyone else and six more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Anfield star who claimed the top scorer award with 29 goals, seven more than the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this point in the previous campaign.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a English top-flight campaign the Pharaohs star has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It isn't only Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the English top division last term, Haaland has scored as many goals as the other 10 players put together so far.

Whether due to physical problems - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in one particular striker's situation or simply because their sides have underperformed (several proven attackers), Haaland's probable competitors in the contest for the top scorer award have not fired so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European top scorer prize that is presented to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That competition is considerably more open at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have similarly opened in great form, with 11 and nine goals each.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the greatest expected goals of the three without having taken any from the penalty spot renders him the frontrunner.

But since the two continental superstars are among the finest converters in European soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the battle continues intensely.